BetonMarkets Systems Part 2: Pricing Your Wagers

What separates the long-term winners from the long-term losers in this game is what price you will settle for on your wager once you have identified a trade setup. Some should be skipped simply because BetonMarkets isn't pricing well that day. This can be frustrating, especially if your system isn't producing a lot of good setups to begin with.

It logically follows then that you could devise a system based purely on bet prices and not so much chart patterns and indicators. Indeed this is the case. A bet-pricing trader is only interested in fluctuations in the odds being offered them.

This method is a lot like being a smart sports bettor at a betting exchange like Betfair. You aren't too concerned about what side of any wager you are on as long as you are getting good odds (more about this in part three of this article). If this is your plan you should have a spreadsheet where you are pricing out certain bets at pre-determined intervals every day. When you see pricing get out-of whack somewhere jump on the wager. In fact the popular ebook Beat BetonMarkets provides a spreadsheet example for doing this.

Most likely you will want to use a system that trades off a chart. So your concern about bet-pricing is simply that you are not getting ripped off on the wager. The best way to accomplish that is by pricing out different wager types and different time frames for the trade setup, and taking the one that looks best from an odds standpoint. I cannot emphasize enough how critical this will be to your long-term results.

For example, in the case of trading a pullback in a trend. Lets say you have a nice uptrend going, very strong-looking and not too old, and the price pulls back to the 20-day moving average where it stalls. The next day it perks up a little and the slow stochastics turns up from the lower extreme. That's your signal to go long.

So you price out a 20-day 1-touch wager back to the upper trend-line, or just barely at making a new high. But you notice the payout odds on that wager are lower than usual. So you stop because you know you can't settle for a bad payout. Instead you look at a No-touch bet a bit below the moving average (where price is now), a 30-day bull expiry bet around the upper trend-line, and maybe even the same 1-touch wager for different time frames and different price levels.

Obviously you need a frame of reference in order to do this. That's why you should only work one strategy at BetonMarkets. You need to be pricing out the same types of bets all the time so you know when the pricing is acceptable. Sometimes it's out of whack for no other reason (it seems) than to trap the newbies into bad-odds bets. Don't get sucked into that - it's better to pass on the trade if you cannot find a wager that prices out well.

If you know how to price out options, this is a skill that will come in handy. Bet-pricing at BOM is very similar to looking at an option chain. In fact it is a good idea to be well-versed in both, as that way you can tell when the bet-pricing is out of whack purely from a BetonMarkets standpoint. Follow the options chains the same way you follow the bet pricing for whatever market you choose to specialize in.

In our final segment we will talk about working the overall system to find good value.

Disclaimer: The information on this website is for entertainment purposes only and is not to be taken as financial advice. Always consult your professional financial advisor before undertaking any investment or trading plan. In some jurisdictions financial betting at BetonMarkets.com might be considered online gambling and therefore be deemed illegal, so check with your local laws first. There is risk associated with trading or financial betting and you can lose money. Proceed at your own risk.

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